Sunday, February 23, 2014

Bitcoin Market Update - Mind the Channel

The Bitcoin market has been in a steady decline since January 11th. A combination of people feeling bearish after the big run up to >$1000 and some bad news seems to be enough to keep this trend going. Overall I am bearish. In the charts below I will point out two major channels the market has been staying in. The first chart, (Chart A) is a major channel that is still somewhat relevant to the market. As close as February 10 to now, the market has still been bobbing around on the bottom green and blue lines of the pitchfork. For trading one would want to watch the action around those lines to know where the trend is headed in the short term.

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Chart B is another pitchfork, but of the more recent trend. As you can see bellow, even amidst the colossal screw ups of Mt. Gox, Bitcoin has been mostly trading within this range. Again using this pitchfork for trading is relatively easy. Watch the price actions around the key purple, red, and blue lines, to determine direction and set stops. Most recently we hit the top of the channel around 635 and are likely headed back down. We just bounced of the top blue trend line but I doubt it will last. In the short-mid term, I see the market continuing on this down trend at least until Mt. Gox issues get resolved, or until some huge bullish news comes. 

Do you agree or disagree? Want to talk with me about this post? Message me on twitter and I would be glad to discuss it further. 

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